Jahresende 2023: Privater Konsum dämpft die konjunkturelle Erholung in Deutschland
The German economy remained weak in the second half of the year. Economic output fell slightly in the third quarter and there were no signs of a significant improvement at the end of the year. One important reason for the lack of recovery from the energy price shock so far is the reluctance of consumers to spend. Although the real disposable income of private households appears to have stabilized somewhat in the meantime. However, there are currently no signs of a full recovery from the decline in real incomes observed since 2020. Accordingly, private consumption is also still declining. In the coming year real disposable income should have made up for a noticeable part of its previous losses, so that private households will gradually abandon their reluctance to consume. Falling interest rates should also boost consumption and investment. In addition, we assume that the economic policy framework for the energy transition in particular will take on clearer contours. In view of this, compa-nies are also likely to increase their investment demand and make up for some of their postponed investments. GDP is likely to fall by an annual average of 0.3% this year. It is likely to expand by 0.8% in 2024 and by 1.4% in 2025. Price pressure is likely to ease further in the forecast period. We expect annual average inflation of 6.0% this year. In the next two years, the rates are then likely to be 2.1% and 1.8%. The decision of the Federal Constitutional Court is unlikely to have a direct impact on government spending in the short term. Indirectly, it will curb government spend-ing, as the federal budget for 2024 is not likely to be adopted until after the start of the year. The provisional budget management will have an expenditure-reducing effect. At the same time, the funding proviso and uncertainty are likely to further delay the outflow of funds from the funding programs. Companies are likely to postpone some investments until the political uncertainty subsides. At just over 57 billion euros, the general government financing deficit in the current year is therefore likely to be significantly lower than in the previous year (just under 100 billion euros). In 2024, the financing deficit is likely to shrink to a good EUR 31 billion. In 2025, the financing deficit is likely to increase slightly and then amount to a good EUR 35 billion. The labor market has been weakening for several months. Seasonally adjusted employment growth has recently fallen sharply. At the same time, the number of unemployed rose noticeably by 48 thousand in the third quarter of 2023. Due to demographic change, employment is likely to reach its peak over the course of the coming year and decline in 2025. On the other hand, unemployment is also expected to fall again from next year, with the economic recovery playing an important role alongside the shortage of skilled workers and labor. The annual average unemployment rate is likely to be 5.7% in 2023 and fall from 5.7% in 2024 to 5.5% in 2025.
Schmidt, T., G. Barabas, N. Benner, B. Blagov, M. Dirks, N. Isaak, R. Jessen, F. Kirsch, C. Krause and P. Schacht (2023), Jahresende 2023: Privater Konsum dämpft die konjunkturelle Erholung in Deutschland. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 74, 4, 30-69