Frühjahr 2023: Kaufkraftentzug bremst die konjunkturelle Erholung in Deutschland
The German economy should recover this year noticeably from the consequences of the energy price shock. At currently under EUR 50 per MWh, the price of gas is EUR 100 lower than the average for the second half of 2022. This is currently benefiting larger companies in particular, to which the price reductions are passed on relatively quickly. Private households and smaller companies will be relieved through the gas price and electricity price brake in the coming months. Energy prices at the consumer level are not expected to fall more significantly until next year. Overall, consumer prices are expected to rise by an average of 5.5% this year. In the coming year, infla-tion is then expected to amount to 2.2%. The recovery in GDP is expected to be weak after the decline in the winter. The still high inflation combined with rising interest rates is likely to weigh on domestic demand in particular. On average, GDP is expected to expand by 0.2% this year. A stronger recovery in private consumption is not expected until real incomes rise. In 2024, GDP is expected to expand by 1.8%. On the labor market, there are signs that the significant rise in employment will come to an end. Ongoing demographic change and a slowdown in immigration are likely to lead to a reduction in the number of employees in Germany from the second half of 2024. Overall, employment is expected to increase by almost 300 thousand on average in 2023, but then fall by 6 thousand in 2024. Public spending in the current year is largely determined by the gas price and electricity price brakes. As gas and electricity prices have now fallen well below their highs in the previous year, spending on the price brakes is likely to remain in the low double-digit billions. In the coming year, the price brakes will probably no longer result in any relevant payments. Fiscal policy in 2023 is restrictive, mainly because government spending in connection with high energy prices was higher last year than this year. In 2024, the price brakes will also be lifted, so that fiscal policy will again be restrictive.
Schmidt, T., G. Barabas, N. Benner, B. Blagov, M. Dirks, D. Grozea-Helmenstein, N. Isaak, R. Jessen, F. Kirsch, P. Schacht and K. Weyerstraß (2023), Frühjahr 2023: Kaufkraftentzug bremst die konjunkturelle Erholung in Deutschland. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 74, 1, 5-45