Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2027: Demografie dämpft zunehmend das Potenzialwachstum
Potential output growth of the German economy in the coming years is likely to be lower than in the previous decade and to decline further in the course of the projection period up to the year 2027. This is in particular due to demographic developments. The number of persons at working-age is likely to peak and to decline foreseeably. The aging of the population also contributes to the fact that a further strong expansion of labor force participation seems unlikely. At the same time, the economic recovery in the coming years is expected to be rather weak. Consequently, it will take some time for the output gap to close.
Kirsch, F., G. Barabas and T. Schmidt (2022), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2027: Demografie dämpft zunehmend das Potenzialwachstum. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 73, 4, 41-51