A Systematic Framework for Measuring Employment Impacts of Development Cooperation Interventions
This paper summarizes the key features of a systematic framework for assessing the aggregate employment impacts of a portfolio of development cooperation interventions. The methodological approach follows a bottom-up procedure based on three steps: (i) estimating employment effects at the intervention level, net of the counterfactual scenario; (ii) estimating (economy-wide) employment impacts of interventions taking into account employment-related indirect effects of the intervention such as displacement, substitution and multipliers; (iii) aggregating these employment impacts across the portfolio and deriving comparable parameter values for employment effects. We discuss these steps, along with two preparatory steps that enable an identification of projects for which a detailed evaluation may be most relevant and feasible. To this end, we develop a classification of intervention types from an employment perspective and propose an approach to judge their evaluability ex-ante. Finally, we discuss how these bottom-up estimates can feed into a system of institutional learning about employment impacts, based on the specification of an indicator for employment outcomes that can be compared and aggregate across heterogeneous development projects. The paper is based on an exploratory study conducted for German development cooperation; hence there is a necessary focus on a framework applicable in this specific context.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)