Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2018: Inlands- und Auslandsnachfrage verlieren mittelfristig an Schwung
According to our estimations, production potential in Germany will increase by 1.4% per year on average over the period 2014 to 2018. Until 2015, the labour input supports growth. From 2017 onwards, the total number of working hour decreases as the demographically induced decline of the population of working age can no longer be compensated by the small increase of the labour force participation rate and the hardly decreasing structural unemployment. The expansion of the capital stock and technical progress support potential growth over the entire projection period. Impulses on the German economy come both from foreign and domestic demand. Not least due to the expected tightening of monetary policy, first in the US and later-on also in the Euro-area, the stimuli will subside somewhat over the medium term. The gradual rise of interest rates will dampen the world economy and also domestic demand in Germany. However, the German economy remains on a clear upward trajectory, in particular due to robust private consumption. With the rising capacity utilisation, companies will be inclined to increase investment in the renewal and expansion of production capacities, although the financing conditions will slightly deteriorate. In 2014, production capacities are estimated to be fully utilised. From next year onwards, a slightly positive output gap can be expected. Due to the subsiding monetary stimulus, the output gap should start to close again from 2017 on.
Barabas, G., H. Gebhardt, T. Schmidt and K. Weyerstraß (2014), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2018: Inlands- und Auslandsnachfrage verlieren mittelfristig an Schwung. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 65, 1, 93-105