Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Abschwung
Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany declined in the second quarter of 2019, after having expanded quite strongly at the beginning of the year. In particular, exports fell in the second quarter, especially those to Great Britain. Construction investments decreased also, probably due to the strong expansion in the first quarter. In contrast, private consumption and public spending continued to rise. Overall, short-term factors led to a decline in production in the second quarter. Since then, however, there is evidence that the period of weakness will continue and that there is an economic slowdown in Germany. In particular, the decline in production in the manufacturing sector persists, especially in the automotive industry. In addition, other sectors of the economy are now affected by the economic weakness. In particular, the deterioration of sentiment in the services sector is a cause for concern, as services have developed quite robustly up to now and significantly contributed to the strong increase in employment in Germany. This increases the risk that the German economy is moving into recession. However, the extent of negative factors is not large enough to significantly exacerbate the decline in industrial production. This also limits the contagion effects to other sectors. Construction activity, measured by the well-filled order books, shows hardly any signs of weakness. This sector continues to benefit from low interest rates. However, another indication that the initially sectorally limited weakness is slowly impinging on other economic sectors is that the labour market has lost its upward momentum. While there are still clear differences between employment dynamics in the manufacturing industry and in the services sector, expectations in the services sector have also deteriorated. This has led to a considerable slowdown in the recent expansion of employment. However, there are no signs of a significant decline in employment, which would be expected in a recession. On the whole, we expect that economic output in the current quarter has also declined slightly and will stagnate at the end of the year. Economic output should slowly pick up again in the coming year. We assume that a hard Brexit will be avoided and that Great Britain will leave the European Union on the basis of a withdrawal agreement. Overall, we expect GDP to grow by only 0.4 percent on average in 2019. The weak phase should gradually be overcome during the remainder of the forecast period. GDP will grow by 0.9 percent in 2020 and by 1.3 percent in 2021. At the same time, inflation is likely to remain low.
Schmidt, T., G. Barabas, A. Fuest, P. Jäger, R. Jessen, M. Micheli and S. Rujin (2019), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Abschwung. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 70, 3, 25-52