Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Weltkonjunktur weiter aufwärts gerichtet
The expansion of the world economy accelerated in the second half of 2014. Last year's global revival can be attributed primarily to growth in advanced economies, and particularly to the strong growth in the US Also the euro area has seen a continuation of the recovery. By contrast, Japan's output declined sharply after the increase in the value-added tax rate last year. The ongoing economic stabilization in the emerging markets was additionally supported by increased demand from advanced economies. In the view of low crude oil prices, world economic activity is expected to further pick up in the near term. This consideration is based on the assumption that the average crude oil price in 2015 will amount to 58 $/b and will reach the price of 60 $/b in 2016. The overall monetary policy stance has become more expansive in 2014. Due to the sharp drop of production in Japan and the sluggish pace of economic recovery in the euro area, the local central banks decided to ease their monetary policies even further last year. In reaction to this, additional central banks in developing countries have also expanded their monetary stance. A change of the course in monetary policy is expected to occur after the U.S. central bank will begin increasing interest rates. Following the monetary tightening, the world economic expansion is likely to slow down gradually. In the light of the above considerations, the global economic recovery is expected to continue this year and it is anticipated to lose momentum in 2016. The economic growth rates in various regions are likely to converge over the forecast horizon. This year world economic output is projected to increase by 3.3 percent and by 3.5 percent in 2016. This is consistent with the world trade expansion by 4.0 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively. The main risks for global economic developments arise primarily from the anticipated interest rate hike in the U.S. this year. Given the long period of the overall extremely loose monetary policy conditions worldwide, the real economic effects of the monetary stance reversal are likely to be much stronger than those previously experienced. Moreover, the slowdown of the Chinese economic growth might jeopardize the optimistic world economic outlook since the ongoing reduction of the imbalances in the real estate sector might imply more intricate and far-reaching effects than assumed here. In addition, international conflicts remain a risk for the global economy.
Schmidt, T., R. Döhrn, D. Grozea-Helmenstein, P. An de Meulen, M. Micheli, S. Rujin and L. Zwick (2015), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Weltkonjunktur weiter aufwärts gerichtet. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 66, 1, 5-42