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RWI Konjunkturberichte

Schätzung der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in NRW im dritten Quartal 2022: Ein Mixed-Frequency-Ansatz

Timely information about economic development is of great importance for economic policy at the state level. Indicators of economic development at the state level, such as gross domestic product and gross value added, are, however, compiled annually. This paper presents an approach to decompose the annual GDP for NRW into quarterly values using indicators with a higher frequency. The model can then be used to produce forecasts of quarterly GDP values. The model is used to estimate economic development in NRW up to the end of 2022. This shows that, at the time the forecast was prepared in November 2022, a somewhat weaker economic development was expected for NRW than for Germany as a whole.

Blagov, B. and T. Schmidt (2022), Schätzung der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in NRW im dritten Quartal 2022: Ein Mixed-Frequency-Ansatz. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 73, 4, 53-59

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