Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2025: Wirtschaftliche Corona-Folgen werden in der mittleren Frist überwunden
Growth of the German economy's production potential will in all likelihood weaken in the coming years. This is mainly due to the expected reduction of the potential volume of work. After only slight growth at the beginning of the projection period, this is expected to decline in the course of the projection period. By contrast, the Corona crisis is unlikely to have a serious impact on potential output. With the anticipated easing of infection control measures in the summer half-year, economic activity is expected to recover quickly. GDP is expected to expand much faster than potential output this year and next. In the years thereafter, the rate of GDP expansion is expected to converge to the potential growth rate, which is expected to be 0.7% at the end of the medium-term projection period. According to this forecast, the output gap will close as early as next year and remain slightly positive in the medium term.
Barabas, G., R. Jessen, F. Kirsch and T. Schmidt (2020), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2025: Wirtschaftliche Corona-Folgen werden in der mittleren Frist überwunden. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 71, 4, 27-37