Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2025: Geringe mittelfristige Effekte der Corona-Pandemie
Potential growth of the German economy is likely to decrease noticeably in the coming years. This is mainly driven by the development of the potential labour volume, which, against the backdrop of the demographic change, is likely to decline at the end of the projection period. Considering the depth of the recession triggered by the pandemic the loss of potential output in the medium term is comparatively small. In the course of the economic recovery GDP is likely to grow substantially stronger than potential output this year and next. The aggregate output gap will therefore close already next year. Subsequently, GDP growth is expected to slow down in accordance with the development of estimated potential output.
Barabas, G., R. Jessen, F. Kirsch, P. Schacht and T. Schmidt (2021), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2025: Geringe mittelfristige Effekte der Corona-Pandemie. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 72, 2, 35-48