Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2023: Wachstum auf des Messers Schneide
In the medium term, the growth of potential output in Germany will be increasingly slowed by demographic developments. Older population groups with an increasing but still comparatively low participation rate will become more and more important. In this projection, we estimate that potential output will increase by 1.3% per year until 2023 with rates decreasing over time. Although the upswing will continue, we expect the growth of actual output to slow markedly parallel to the slowing of potential output growth. The susceptibility of the German economy to external economic disruptions will thus increase.
Barabas, G., R. Jessen, T. Schmidt and K. Weyerstraß (2018), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2023: Wachstum auf des Messers Schneide. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 69, 4, 23-38