Deutsche Konjunktur im Zeichen der Automobilindustrie
In 2018, the upswing of the German economy lost momentum. In the second half of the year the moderation was aggrav ated by problems in the automotive sector implementing the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP). The latter will lose its dampening influence in the next months. Furthermore, the economy will be stimulated by an expansionary fiscal stance . Nevertheless, the expansion will continue to be moderate. Foreign demand remains la ckluster. On the domestic side, labor short- ages, strong price increases in the constructi on sector, and a restructuring in the auto- motive sector will weigh on growth. We forecast GDP to grow by only 1.4% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020, of which 0.4 perc entage points represent a working day effect. Inflation will slow down in view of the oil price having already declined. Employment is expected to grow more slowly, but unemployment will continue to recede. The more expansionary fiscal stance will lead to a reduction of the general government surplus from 1.6% in relation to GDP in 2018 to 1.0% in 2019 and 0.8% in 2020.
Döhrn, R., G. Barabas, B. Blagov, A. Fuest, P. Jäger, R. Jessen, M. Micheli, S. Rujin and T. Schmidt (2018), Deutsche Konjunktur im Zeichen der Automobilindustrie. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 69, 4, 5-22