Megatrends and the Future of Democracy in Africa: How Do the Youth Bulge, Urbanization and Digitalization Shape African Politics?
Africa’s future will be young, urban and digital, but will it also be more democratic? Put differently, are the youth bulge, urbanization and digitalization individually and jointly conducive to more democracy or instead enhance autocratization? Previous comparative politics research is far from conclusive. It also pays little attention to the interlinkages between urbanization, demographic change and digitalization. This paper proposes an analytical framework to analyse the individual and combined effects of the youth bulge, urbanization and digitalization on African politics. More concretely, it explores how age, urbanization and access to social media shape African citizens’ political attitudes, their willingness to participate in democratic institutions, and various forms of collective action. Building on a comprehensive literature review of how these megatrends affect African politics, the paper explores Afrobarometer data to analyse political attitudes and behaviour. Although we do not assume that structural factors by themselves lead to democratization or autocratization, we suppose that they can create context conditions in which individual actors and institutions might find it easier to press for political reforms. Our analysis points to the complex ways in which the megatrends contribute to shaping politics in Africa. Whereas the youth tend to participate less in elections and are slightly less supportive of democracy than older age cohorts, young Africans have been at the forefront of the “third wave of protests” in Africa since 2011. Urbanites, on average, do not seem to be more supportive of democracy than Africa’s rural citizens, nor do they engage more with formal democratic institutions. However, they seem to be more supportive of the opposition, and they participate more in political protests. Social media facilitates access to information and allows marginalized groups to organize collective protests and voice their concerns. At the same time, disinformation and fake news weaken support for democracy, and African governments can use digital technologies to manipulate elections in their favour. With respect to the interlinkages between the three megatrends, we identify two patterns. First, we find that there is a low level of support for democracy and a lack of willingness to vote among the urban youth. Compared to older generations or to African youth living in rural areas, urbanites are less likely to vote or join political parties. Second, Afrobarometer data on social media with urbanization and age suggests that the role of social media for political attitudes and political protests is much more limited than might be expected. Our analysis suggests that more knowledge is needed about the role of youth in African politics. Given their sheer number, African youth, especially urban youth, might be a key factor for political reforms across the continent in the coming years. Further, more research on the role of young urban citizens – particularly young women, feminist groups and women’s networks – in political protests would help in better understanding recent political transitions. This paper takes a broad perspective and proposes a conceptual framework that intersects three megatrends with political attitudes and participation. Future research could take this forward by highlighting country context conditions more extensively. Finally, further research is needed to investigate the longer-term effects of the megatrends on democratization and autocratization processes in Africa. In more practical terms, our analysis demonstrates that the political consequences of the megatrends on the continent need to be addressed much more prominently in German and European cooperation with African countries. On the one hand, external democracy support will need to consider the fundamental structural changes shaping African societies. To date, German and European cooperation with African partners, is mostly geared towards managing the socio-economic effects of urbanization or demographic changes. Moreover, our analysis highlights the importance of taking an integrated policy perspective with regard to cooperating with African countries on the megatrends instead of viewing individual megatrends as isolated phenomena.