Methoden, Probleme und Ergebnisse der Steuerschätzung
First of all, the study outlines the institutional and methodical framework of the Working Group on Tax Estimates. In this context the article shows that the Working Group's estimates are conditional forecasts based on macroeconomic performance targets and usually also on the calculations referring to the changes of tax law which are made by the Ministry of Finance. Thereafter the accuracy of the forecasts is presented and an error analysis is carried out. In connection with that, the problem is analysed whether the correlation between economic growth and tax revenue trends has become less rigid and whether there will be an erosion of the tax base.
Gebhardt, H. (2001), Methoden, Probleme und Ergebnisse der Steuerschätzung. RWI-Mitteilungen Quarterly: Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftsforschung, 52, 2, 127-147