Deutsche Wirtschaft im Boom – Luft wird dünner
The German Economy Is Booming, but the Air Is Getting Thinner
The German economy continues to boom, but the air is getting thinner. Unused economic capacities are gradually shrink-ing, leading to a slight loss of economic impetus. The pace of economic expansion nevertheless remains brisk: the upturn in the world economy will continue to stimulate exports, and the domestic economy is also expected to remain buoyant thanks to the exceptionally favourable situation in the labour market. The fi scal measures outlined by Germany’s new government in its coalition agreement can be expected to stimulate demand. Annual average economic output can be expected to rise by 2.2 % this year and by 2.0 % in 2019. This represents a 0.2 percentage point increase in the institutes’ assessment of growth in gross domestic product versus their autumn 2017 forecast. Employment will continue to see clear growth, but will be weakened by labour market shortages. At the same time, gross wages can be expected to increase markedly. The infl ation rate will also rise gradually from 1.7 % this year to 1.9 % in 2019.
Döhrn, R., F. Fichtner, O. Holtemöller, S. Kooths and T. Wollmershäuser (2018), Deutsche Wirtschaft im Boom – Luft wird dünner: The German Economy Is Booming, but the Air Is Getting Thinner. Wirtschaftsdienst, 98, 5, 347-352