Der Investitionsaufschwung blieb aus: das Prognosejahr 2015 im Rückblick
The Upswing in Capital Formation Failed to Appear: The Forecast for 2015 in Retrospective
When publishing short term forecasts, economists have to reveal their beliefs, e.g. on the duration, shape, and driving forces of business cycles. Against this background, this article analyses the forecasts for 2015 provided by 15 national and international institutions for Germany. In all forecasts, expected GDP growth did not deviate very much from the provisional figure published in January 2016. In a short period in autumn 2014, forecasts were revised downward, owing in particular to a considerable downward revision of investment in equipment. The GDP forecasts thereafter returned to their initial value, now driven by private consumption which benefitted from the decline of oil prices. As expected, GDP was driven by domestic demand, but net exports unexpectedly also contributes positively to growth. Interestingly, forecasts of export growth remained quite robust with respect to changes in world trade forecasts. Another interesting feature is that investment in equipment did not play the expected role as a driver of the business cycle. Finally, private consumption grew almost as expected, but more than likely for other reasons than assumed in the first forecasts.
Döhrn, R. (2016), Der Investitionsaufschwung blieb aus: das Prognosejahr 2015 im Rückblick: The Upswing in Capital Formation Failed to Appear: The Forecast for 2015 in Retrospective. Wirtschaftsdienst, 96, 4, 253-257