Seeking Scientific Consensus - Using Expert Surveys to Settle Replication Debates
Unsuccessful replications often lead to fierce debates between replicators and original authors. We investigate whether expert judgement can help settle such controversies. Our pilot project focuses on the prominent case of Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2001) versus Albouy (2012) and their dispute over the use of settler mortality data as an instrument for institutions. We have surveyed more than 300 experts to elicit their assessment of the debate and its outcome. These experts were recruited by drawing on a pool of scholars who have cited one of the involved or similar articles. Going beyond this case study, we discuss the epistemic implications of unresolved replication debates in economics and evaluate the extent to which expert knowledge can contribute to interpreting scientific controversies in the future.
Publications
Project start:
01. January 2023
Project end:
31. December 2025
Project management:
Prof. Dr. Jörg Ankel-Peters,
Martin Buchner
Project staff:
Dr. Julian Rose,
Martin Buchner,
Mandy Malan
Project partners:
Stockholm School of Economics