Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2022: Stabiles Wachstum in der mittleren Frist
In the medium-run we expect total factor productivity to become the main driver of potential output growth in Germany. After a slowdown of productivity growth during the financial crisis, TFP growth accelerated considerably in the recent years. In this projection we assume that productivity growth rates increased further from 0.5% to 0.8%. Against this background we expect an increase of potential output of 1.4% per year. Moreover, we expect that the growth rates of actual output decelerates towards potential output growth. As a result the economic upswing in Germany will continue but at a slower pace. The output gap will remain at one percent of potential output in the medium-term. An economic overheating is unlikely.
Barabas, G., R. Jessen, T. Schmidt and K. Weyerstraß (2018), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2022: Stabiles Wachstum in der mittleren Frist. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 69, 2, 21-32