Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2019: Aufschwung setzt sich in moderatem Tempo fort
Favorable labor market conditions in Germany and persistently high unemployment rates in other European countries encourage migration to Germany. Based on positive net migration flows well above pre-crisis levels, employment increases even though recent economic policy measures (the introduction of a minimum wage and the lowering of the retirement age under certain conditions) have countervailing effects. We also expect an acceleration of capital accumulation, following from improving international business expectations. All in all, potential output will grow on average by 1.2% per year over the period 2014 to 2019. Actual production is expected to increase at a slightly higher rate of 1.5% per year. The recent drop in oil prices, the depreciation of the Euro and the strengthening US economy will have a positive impact on German production in the short term. Moreover, domestic demand will also be strong in the short-run. Although production and domestic demand are expected to lose momentum in the medium run, the recovery in Germany seems to be robust. Based on our forecast the output gap is already positive and will increase further. Therefore, core inflation is likely to rise.
Barabas, G., H. Gebhardt, T. Schmidt and K. Weyerstraß (2014), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2019: Aufschwung setzt sich in moderatem Tempo fort. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 65, 4, 45-57