Außenwirtschaftliche Faktoren dämpfen deutsche Konjunktur
Domestic demand remains the driving force of the German economy in 2017 and 2018. Net exports, on the other hand, are expected to dampen growth. The upswing is borne by employment and income increasing continuously, supporting private consumption and residential building. However, since the effect of the low oil price on real income is phasing out, consumption will grow less buoyantly than in the past. Investment in construction is expected to increase markedly. All in all we expect GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018, after 1.8% in 2016. The decline of the GDP rate in 2017 compared to 2016 is mostly due to a working day effect. Inflation will rise from 0.4% in 2016 to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018. Employment is forecasted to grow further albeit at lower rates. Despite of this unemployment will rise over the forecast horizon since an increasing number of refugees gets access to the labor market but finds it difficult to get a job. The general government budget remains in surplus, but to a diminishing extent since fiscal stance is slightly expansionary.
Döhrn, R., G. Barabas, B. Blagov, A. Fuest, H. Gebhardt, P. Jäger, M. Micheli, S. Rujin and T. Schmidt (2016), Außenwirtschaftliche Faktoren dämpfen deutsche Konjunktur. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 67, 4, 5-15