Aufschwung in Deutschland auf breiter Basis
After a moderate slowdown in spring 2014, the growth rate of the German economy is expected to gradually accelerate later this year. The ongoing economic upswing will thereby be mainly driven by the domestic demand. The anticipated speedy increase of disposable incomes arising from the improving employment performance and a substantial expansion of the statutory pension insurance services is likely to give a strong boost to the private consumption this year. However, it is assumed that the employment growth will be curbed by the implementation of the statutory nationwide minimum wage in 2015. Furthermore, investment is also expected to rise considerably. In particular, the housing construction will benefit from the favorable situation on the labour market, the positive trend in real wages, and the historically low mortgage rates. The fiscal policy stance will remain slightly expansionary over the forecast horizon. Nevertheless, foreign trade is expected to make a positive contribution to economic growth starting from the next year. In sum, the GDP is projected to grow by 2,0% in 2014 and by 2,2% in the coming year.
Döhrn, R., G. Barabas, A. Fuest, H. Gebhardt, P. An de Meulen, S. Rujin, T. Schmidt and L. Zwick (2014), Aufschwung in Deutschland auf breiter Basis. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 65, 2, 5-14