Does Information about Legal Migration Pathways Reduce Irregular Migration Aspirations?
Many high-income countries aim to both increase immigration in line with their labor market needs and decrease irregular arrivals, and some have explicitly promoted efforts to achieve the former as part of a solution to the latter. However, empirical evidence on how information about legal pathways shapes irregular migration intentions as well as self-selection and aspirations for mobility and qualification more broadly remains scant. We contribute new insights with a randomized controlled trial in rural Senegal, providing information and basic assistance on the U.S. Diversity Visa Lottery, which offers medium-and high-skilled migrants access to permanent residence. The intervention significantly increases migration intentions and shifts preferences toward legal pathways. However, currently ineligible individuals, particularly those already contemplating irregular migration, show increased interest in migrating irregularly, suggesting an unintended consequence of efforts to broadly promote legal migration options. Education aspirations only increase weakly from a high baseline. These aspirations already mostly surpass the requirements for pursuing a legal migration path, but participants are unable to realize them.