7-Tage- oder Hospitalisierungsinzidenz
Die „risikoadjustierte Inzidenz“ als alternativer Frühindikator?
The 7-day incidence rates is becoming increasingly insufficient as a decision-making tool for management of the corona pandemic. High vaccination rates among the vulnerable, older population groups and relatively more infections among the younger population have greatly changed the importance of the 7-day incidence rates for the health care system. According to the Federal Minister of Health, a hospitalization incidence rate should substitute the 7-day incidence rates and become the essential benchmark for policy decisions. However, this rate cannot serve as an early warning system since, like the occupancy of the intensive care units, it only reacts when the patient is admitted to hospital. The previous development of infection is not taken into account. In addition, the collection of the data is partially incomplete. Alternatively, different packages of key indicators are discussed, including incidences, hospital statistics, test rates and deaths. The public communication of such packages is however difficult. As a compromise, we suggest the use of a risk-adjusted incidence. This measure is based on age-group-specific incidence rates which are weighted by their respective hospitalization risk. The resulting indicator offers a straightforward and at the same time meaningful early warning instrument for the expected hospital occupancy rate.