Sommer 2026: Deutliche konjunkturelle Erholung trotz anhaltender struktureller Belastungen
The RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research expects the German economy to grow by 1.3 percent in 2026. It forecasts a 1.1 percent increase in gross domestic product for 2027 and a 0.5 percent increase for 2028. Compared to the forecast from early summer, expectations for 2026 and 2027 have thus been raised. The surprisingly strong recovery in the first half of the year was driven primarily by exports and government spending. Private demand, on the other hand, remains weak. The German economy recovered more strongly than expected in the first half of 2026. Following a 0.4 percent increase in gross domestic product in the first quarter, economic output rose by a further 0.3 percent in the second quarter. Compared to its forecast from early summer, the RWI has thus raised its growth expectations. In June, GDP growth of 0.8 percent had been expected for both 2026 and 2027. Now, the forecast for 2026 is 0.5 percentage points higher, and for 2027, 0.3 percentage points higher.
Schmidt, T., N. Benner, B. Blagov, N. Isaak, R. Jessen, S. Kotz, C. Krause, J. Lippert, M. Nöller and P. Schacht-Picozzi (2026), Sommer 2026: Deutliche konjunkturelle Erholung trotz anhaltender struktureller Belastungen. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 77, A05