Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2022: Hohe Kapazitätsauslastung birgt Stabilitätsrisiken
The economic upswing in Germany will continue in the medium term but loose some pace after 2019. Initially, domestic demand will remain the main driver of the economy. In the medium term tightening of monetary policy is expected which will dampen domestic demand. At the same time, the growth of potential output will decline due to demographic factors. We expect that actual GDP as well as potential GDP will expand at a rate of 1,4% towards the end of the medium term. This projection implies that the output gap will continue to increase in the next years and will stabilize at 1,5% of potential output thereafter. Thus, capacity utilization will remain high, which is a clear sign that the business cycle will run into a boom phase.
Barabas, G., H. Gebhardt, T. Schmidt and K. Weyerstraß (2017), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2022: Hohe Kapazitätsauslastung birgt Stabilitätsrisiken. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 68, 4, 39-53