Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2021: Binnenwirtschaftliche Impulse bei erhöhter weltwirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit
Potential output will be stimulated by high immigration in the years ahead. While technical progress is expected to speed up slightly, the contribution of capital formation to growth is decreasing. Altogether we expect potential output to increase by 1.5% per year on average during the period 2016 to 2021. Hence, potential output growth will be slightly higher than during the past decade. Economic policy is expected to remain favorable over the medium term. The expansionary stance of monetary policy will be reversed only gradually. Fiscal policy is expected to be cyclically neutral in the medium term. Against this backdrop we expect GDP to expand by 1.2% this year, 1.6% next year and 1.5% per year on average for the years 2019 to 2021. This implies that the output gap remains slightly positive over the medium term.
Barabas, G., H. Gebhardt, T. Schmidt and K. Weyerstraß (2016), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2021: Binnenwirtschaftliche Impulse bei erhöhter weltwirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 67, 4, 17-32