Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2020: Potenzialausweitung eröffnet die Möglichkeiten für ein solides Wirtschaftswachstum
Potential output growth is expected to accelerate over the medium term. The reason is the high level of immigration which will continue in the near future. We expect potential output to increase by 1.5 percent per year on average over the period 2015 to 2020. This projection is based on a revised estimation of potential hours worked. On the one hand we expect a larger labor force than in previous projections. On the other hand this effect will be offset by a lower participation rate and a higher structural unemployment rate. Real GDP is expected to expand slightly faster than potential output over the medium term. One reason is the favorable international environment. However, monetary policy is expected to become less accommodative in the medium run. An increase in interest rates will reduce the positive effects of monetary policy on domestic demand in Germany. Private consumption will be stimulated by a continuing rise in employment. Overall, we expect a moderate slowdown of domestic demand in the medium run.
Barabas, G., H. Gebhardt, T. Schmidt and K. Weyerstraß (2015), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2020: Potenzialausweitung eröffnet die Möglichkeiten für ein solides Wirtschaftswachstum. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 66, 3, 99-110