Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2020: Günstige Perspektiven für ein solides Wachstum
The medium-run perspectives for the German economy remain favorable. The current strong immigration to Germany will have a strong impact on the economy in the medium-run. On the one hand the refugees will raise the unemployment rate in the short run. On the other hand they could raise labor supply in the medium run. Government consumption and transfers to migrants will back domestic demand, which would hence remain the main driving force for the economic expansion. Exports are expected to grow weakly due to subdued international perspectives. From 2015 to 2020 real GDP will increase by 1.4% per year on average. This means that GDP will increase slightly faster than potential output.
Barabas, G., H. Gebhardt, T. Schmidt and K. Weyerstraß (2016), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2020: Günstige Perspektiven für ein solides Wachstum. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 67, 1, 111-124