Inlandsnachfrage trägt Konjunktur
The upswing in Germany continues, borne primarily by .domestic demand. Net export, on the contrary, had a dampening impact on expansion in the first quarter. Over the forecast horizon, driving forces of the upswing will alter somewhat. On the one hand, the stimulating effect of declining oil prices on private consumption will phase out. On the other hand, exports will benefit from the depreciation of the Euro and from the improving economic situation in the Euro area. However, the increase of exports is dragged by the sluggish economy in various emerging markets. All in all, we expect GDP to grow by 1.8% in this year and by 1.9% in the next, with losing momentum during the year. Inflation will resume with the dampening effect of lower oil prices receding. We expect in inflation rate of 0.5% in this year and 1.7% in the next. Fiscal stance will be slightly expansionary. Nevertheless the general government's financial balance will show a surplus of approximately € 20 bn. in this year and the next due to strongly growing receipts.
Döhrn, R., G. Barabas, A. Fuest, H. Gebhardt, P. An de Meulen, M. Micheli, S. Rujin, T. Schmidt and L. Zwick (2015), Inlandsnachfrage trägt Konjunktur. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 66, 2, 5-14