Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Konjunktur weiter von Binnenwirtschaft getragen
Economic growth in Germany has gained momentum at the end of 2016, after a slowdown in the third quarter. The expansion was driven exclusively by domestic demand while net exports contributed negatively to the expansion of GDP. The domestic demand-led expansion is expected to continue, however, at a slightly slower pace compared to the previous year. Because inflation will pick up, households' real disposable income will increase less, which will curb private consumption growth. Public consumption is expected to lose momentum as well given that the government will spend less on benefits in kind for refugees. In contrast, equipment investment will pick up, even though at a slower pace compared to previous economic upswings. According to our forecast, investment in construction remains lively. Net exports, however, continue to be a drag on the economic expansion. Even though exports are expected to gain momentum, imports should benefit from robust domestic demand and hence will increase significantly faster.
Döhrn, R., G. Barabas, B. Blagov, A. Fuest, H. Gebhardt, P. Jäger, M. Micheli and S. Rujin (2017), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Konjunktur weiter von Binnenwirtschaft getragen. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 68, 1, 33-91