Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Weltwirtschaft im Sinkflug
The pace of global economic expansion continued to decline at the beginning of this year. The slowdown continued in the manufacturing sector in particular, which had already lost momentum in the past year. In the final quarter of the year, overall economic production expanded at a somewhat slower pace, particularly in the two major economies USA and China. In the Euro Area, it rose at the same rate as in the previous quarter. In Japan, demand expanded again in the final quarter after a temporary decline. Against this backdrop, corporate sentiment continued to deteriorate at the beginning of the year. As a result, the possibility of an impending recession is more frequently discussed in the media. This was particularly noticeable at the turn of the year 2018/2019. After that, these fears seem to have lessened somewhat. A number of supporting factors lead to the assessment that the global economy will weaken but not slide into recession. From a sector perspective, the fact that the increasingly important service sector is still expanding quite strongly worldwide does not indicate that we approach an end of the upswing. In addition, purchasing power is increasing due to the decline in crude oil prices at the end of last year. In view of the slowing pace of the economic expansion and lower inflation, at least in the short term, the central banks have decelerated the pace of monetary tightening somewhat. By contrast, the orientation of fiscal policy varies across countries. In the USA, the impulses from the tax cuts are easing which tends to dampen economic demand. In Japan and China, by contrast, public spending is even planned to increase. Global economic expansion is likely to slow only marginally in the forecast period. The slowdown will be more pronounced in the major economies, where the upswing has been going on for some time. By contrast, it is likely to accelerate in some economies, such as Latin America. On balance, growth rates are expected to remain close to the long-term average. All in all, it is expected that the expansion of the global economy will continue to slow in the forecast period. We expect global GDP to expand by 3.0% this year and by 2.8% next year. World trade is likely to expand at rates of 2.5% and 3.0% next year.
Schmidt, T., B. Blagov, R. Döhrn, D. Grozea-Helmenstein, P. Jäger, M. Micheli and S. Rujin (2019), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Weltwirtschaft im Sinkflug. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 70, 1, 5-22