Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Keine durchgreifende Besserung
The state of the global economy has stabilized since the beginning of this year, following a major slowdown in output growth at the end of last year. While economic conditions have brightened in advanced economies, growth remains weak in emerging markets. In China, exports are declining with negative effects on domestic investment. Moreover, the reduction of Chinese imports spills over to commodity-exporting economies and contributes to the recession in Brazil. In the coming months, the global economy is likely to gain momentum again. In advanced economies negative effects, such as inventory adjustments in the US as well as the weather-based consumer restraint in Japan, will subside. The economic expansion in these countries is driven by increases in consumption expenditures based on rising employment. Economic activity will remain weak in emerging economies. Economic growth in China will decelerate further due to structural change. Recession is likely to continue in Russia, also because the ongoing sanctions with no relaxation in sight. Brazil is stuck in recession since internal political problems remain unsolved. Against this background, the global economy is expected to expand only modestly over the forecast horizon. In sum, the world GDP (PPP-weighted) will increase by merely 2.9 percent this year and by 3.2 percent next year. Expansion of world trade will be very weak throughout this period. We expect an increase of only 2.4 percent this year and 3.4 percent next year. China still constitutes the main risk factor for the global economy. So far output growth has mostly decelerated in industry. However, a reduction in the existing excess capacities is likely to result in a cut-back of employment. Another risk results from the potential withdrawal of the UK from the EU. The economic consequences are hard to assess and depend on the specific circumstances of the withdrawal. In any case, numerous treaties will have to be renegotiated. Under this assumption, temporary trade restrictions might result in lower economic growth for all trading partners.
Schmidt, T., R. Döhrn, D. Grozea-Helmenstein, P. An de Meulen, M. Micheli, S. Rujin and L. Zwick (2016), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Keine durchgreifende Besserung. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 67, 1, 5-36