Binnenwirtschaftlicher Aufschwung setzt sich fort
The German economy remains in an economic upswing. Driving force now is domestic demand, in particular private and government consumption. Gross fixed capital formation continued to be weak, whereas net exports had a dampening effect on GDP. Over the forecast horizon these tendencies will prevail. The expansion is fueled by dis-posable income. Additional stimulus will come from public spending in the context of the refugee migration. GDP is expected to grow by 1.8% in the next and 1.7% in 2017 after a 1.7% increase in 2015. Inflation will rise to 1.1% (2016) and 1.6% (2017) because the influence of declining energy prices will phase out. Employment is forecasted stay on an upward path. At the same time, unemployment rate will increase because refugees with low qualifications will enter the labor market. Public spending for refugees but also a more expansionary fiscal stance will cut the fiscal balance surplus from € 27 bn in this year to € 7 bn in 2016.
Döhrn, R., G. Barabas, A. Fuest, H. Gebhardt, P. An de Meulen, M. Micheli, S. Rujin, T. Schmidt and L. Zwick (2015), Binnenwirtschaftlicher Aufschwung setzt sich fort. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 66, 4, 5-21