Außenhandel mildert die Folgen des Lockdowns in Deutschland
The renewed lockdown is likely to lead to a decline in economic output at the end of the year. However, the decline in output is not expected to reach the level seen in spring of this year. This is primarily due to the fact that, unlike in spring, foreign demand has supported domestic production until recently. In addition, the economic policy measures already implemented, and the new measures are mitigating the effects of these restrictions. Overall, we expect output to fall by 1.7% in the fourth quarter of this year. On average, this will result in a 5.4% shortfall in GDP this year. With the withdrawal of restrictions in the course of the coming year, the economic recovery should strengthen again. Overall, we forecast GDP growth of 4.9% next year and 2.8% in 2022.
Schmidt, T., G. Barabas, N. Benner, B. Blagov, N. Isaak, R. Jessen, P. Schacht and K. Weyerstraß (2020), Außenhandel mildert die Folgen des Lockdowns in Deutschland. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 71, 4, 5-25