Aufschwung verläuft schwächer als erwartet
The expansion of the German economy is expected to continue in 2014. However, in the most recent months the upswing seems having lost momentum, which can be seen in the latest indicators from the real economy. Furthermore, there is indication the growth of global production translates to a lower extent into world trade, which weighs on German exports. Against this background we forecast a GDP rate of 1.5% in 2014 which is 0.4 percentage points below our September forecast. Fiscal stance will be modestly stimulating, in particular due to better entitlements for pensioners. Nevertheless the fiscal balance will show a surplus of € 8 bn since government receipts are expected to grow stronger for cyclical reasons. Employment is forecasted to continue to increase, leading to a slight decline in unemployment. Inflation is expected to remain moderate.
Döhrn, R., G. Barabas, H. Gebhardt, T. Kitlinski, M. Micheli, S. Vosen and L. Zwick (2013), Aufschwung verläuft schwächer als erwartet. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 64, 4, 5-14