Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft

Many European countries aim at decarbonizing their economy until 2050, thereby striving to entirely abstain from using fossil fuels. Against this background, this paper presents forecasts on the energy demand and energy mixes of Germany, Austria, and Switzerland for 2030, as well as outlooks for 2050. Comparing the energy policies of these countries reveals grave differences: While Germany massively subsidized renewable energy technologies for electricity production, to reduce both its energy consumption and emissions, Austria’s approach heavily relied on regulatory policies, such as command and control measures, accompanied by compensations and subsidies. In contrast, Switzerland established a carbon tax already in 2008. Our forecasts on the energy demand of these countries indicate that Germany and Austria may miss their long-term goal of decarbonization, whereas Switzerland substantially diminished its primary energy consumption in the aftermath of the introduction of its carbon tax. These facts highlight the importance of Germany’s decision to establish a carbon price in its road transport and housing sectors in 2021. Austria now considers introducing a carbon pricing scheme in these sectors as well. It remains an open question, however, whether carbon pricing helps to achieve these countries’ long-term decarbonization goals.