Global economy to grow 2.8% this year and 3.3% in 2014
The global economy has only slightly improved in the first half of this year. Growth has picked up in advanced economies but slowed down in emerging markets. Several emerging economies have lost confidence among investors. Together with signs that the Fed will start scaling back its quantitative easing, this has triggered capital outflows causing substantial currency depreciations in serveral emerging economies.
In the near future, GDP growth rates should remain much higher in emerging economies than in advanced countries but the latter are likely to contribute more to global growth. Fiscal stance in the advanced economies will continue to be tight but should become less restrictive. With confidence improving in the corporate sector and investments having been postponed in recent years fixed capital formation can be expected to contribute to growth. In the emerging countries the slowdown underway will be halted
and growth will accelerate. Overall, we expect the global economy to grow 2.8% this year and 3.3% next year.
The global economy is changing in many respects. China is pursuing a new growth model. The Euro zone is facing institutional reforms meant to strengthen the currency union and make it less vulnerable. Finally, central banks will sooner or later have to scale back on their ultra-loose monetary police. It is not guaranteed that these shifts will go smoothly without causing major disruptions.
(published in „RWI Konjunkturberichte“, No. 3/2013)
Contact:
Prof. Dr. Roland Döhrn, Tel.: 0049-201-8149-262, e-mail
Katharina Brach (press office), Tel.: 0049-201-8149-244, e-mail
Key Data of the Forecast from September 2013
2012 to 2014
|
2012 |
2013f |
2014f | |
| Gross Domestic Product1, change in % |
0.7 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
| Employed persons2, in 1 000 |
41,608 |
41,835 |
42,090 |
| Unemployed3, in 1 000 |
2,897 |
2,940 |
2,895 |
| Unemployment rate3,4, in % |
6.8 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
| Consumer prices, change in % |
2.0 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
| Labor unit costs5, change in % |
3.1 |
2.3 |
1.0 |
| Fiscal balance 6, in billion Euro in % of GDP |
|
|
|
| Current account balance7, in billion Euro |
185.6 |
194 |
206 |
RWI calculations based on data provided by the German Statistical Office, Deutsche Bundesbank, and the Federal Labor Office. - 1In real terms. - 2Domestic. - 3National definition. - 4In % of civilian labor force. - 5Compensation per employee divided by real GDP per employed person. - 6National Accounts definition. - 7Balance of payment definition. - fForecast.
Key Data of the International Forecast
2012 to 2014; changes over the previous year in %
|
2012 |
2013f |
2014f | |
| Gross Domestic Product1 |
|
|
|
|
Euro area | -0.6 | -0.4 | 0.9 |
| United Kingdom | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| USA | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Japan | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Advanced Economies | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Consumer prices | |||
| Euro area | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| United Kingdom | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| USA | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Japan | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 |
| Advanced Economies | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| World Output2 | |||
| based on Purchasing Power Parities | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| based on market exchange rates |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
| World trade3 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
5.3 |
| Oil Price (Brent, US-Dollar/b)4 |
112.0 |
109.5 |
113.2 |
| Exchange Rate (US-Dollar/Euro)4 |
1.29 |
1.32 |
1.32 |
RWI calculations based on OECD, IMF, Eurostat and national data. - 1In constant prices. -2Weighted average of the countries forecasted in this report. -3Goods, in prices and exchange rates of 2005. - 4Annual averages.- fForecast.