Bayesian Causal Estimation of Germany's Recent Fuel Price Policy: The High Noon Rule and the 2026 Fuel Tax Discount
In April 2026, the German government introduced the High Noon Rule, restricting fuel stations to a single permitted daily price increase at midday. Four weeks later, a two-month tax discount cut the fuel duty by €0.167 per litre. Using a Bayesian Structural Time Series model, we estimate the causal impact of each measure on retail prices. The High Noon Rule had no discernible effect on diesel, yet raised petrol prices by nearly 5 cents. Consistent with a competitive market, the tax discount was largely passed through to consumers.
United States Association for Energy Economics (USAEE)
JEL-Klassifikation: Q41, H22, L71, C11
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.6955078