International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy

The paper analyses an ambitious experiment in the public promotion of technology clusters: Germany’s Leading-Edge Cluster Competition (LECC). This funding program combined elements of a bottom-up with a top-down selection process and aimed to identify windows of opportunity for public intervention in the cluster development process. Our analysis is based on an external observer’s perspective of the evolutionary potential of the selected 15 leading-edge clusters (LECs). The observed constellations of factors that potentially influence development perspectives in the individual LECs – assumed windows of opportunity – differ substantially. We observe complex mixtures of technological, market, political and societal influences, but also cluster-specific idiosyncratic factors. Although it is at present too early to assess the long-term impact of the program on high-tech sectors in Germany, our analysis was successful in identifying some promising starting points for technology cluster promotion. The analysis indicates that the time dimension and the related question about possible windows of opportunity are highly relevant for the program impulse of modern complex innovation policy measures in general.