Konjunktur in Nordrhein-Westfalen: Expansion weiterhin schwächer als im Bundesgebiet
In 2015, GDP growth in Northrhine Westphalia once again was lower than in Germany as a whole. We forecast an increase by 0.9% (Germany 1.7%). Almost all real economy indicators performed worse. However, employment grew at similar rates as in the residual parts of Germany. The lack of dynamism has above all structural reasons. In most fields which are essential for long term growth of economies Northrhine Westphalia performs below average. In addition, the exit from nuclear and fossil-fuel energy and the tight budget situation in many municipalities mean a burden to growth. The latter results in low public investment and high property taxes. These structural factors will also dampen GDO growth in 2016; we forecast an increase by 1.4 % (Germany 1.8%). Unemployment is expected to be at 8.0% on average, but will increase slightly in the course of the year since refugees with a low employability will increasingly enter the labor market.
Döhrn, R., G. Barabas and A. Fuest (2015), Konjunktur in Nordrhein-Westfalen: Expansion weiterhin schwächer als im Bundesgebiet. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 66, 4, 23-34