Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Zögerliche Erholung der Weltwirtschaft
The slowdown of the world economy accelerated in the second half of 2012. In Q4 World-GDP grew with its slowest rate since the great recession in 2008/2009. The economy was particularly weak in the advanced economies: GDP stagnated in the US, in Japan it dropped strongly in Q3 and again slightly in Q4, and in the Euro-zone the economic decline even accelerated. Some emerging economies, notably in Latin-America, also saw substantial economic slowdowns. Most Asian economies, on the other hand, bottomed out and grew faster towards the end of the year. The economic slowdown was mainly driven by businesses’ growing uncertainty regarding future economic policies, the unsolved Euro-crisis, but also homemade shortcomings in several emerging countries. However, the latest economic numbers and improved business climate indicate a recovery of the world economy. Economic policies in industrialized economies send conflicting signals. Monetary policy is to remain expansionary. Fiscal policy on the other hand is being tightened not only in the Euro-zone and the US, where automatic spending cuts took effect, but next year also in Japan. As a result, growth rates in advanced economies will remain low this year and increase only somewhat in the course of 2014. The emerging economies on the other hand will return to higher growth rates this year, accelerating further in 2014. Unlike in previous years, however, their impact on the world economy will remain limited. In summary, World-GDP (weighted by Purchasing Power Parities) will grow by 3.1% this year and 3.7% in 2014, thus remaining well below the long-term average.
Döhrn, R., P. An de Meulen, D. Grozea-Helmenstein, T. Kitlinski, T. Schmidt and S. Vosen (2013), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Zögerliche Erholung der Weltwirtschaft. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 64, 1, 5-40