Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Wieder stärkere Expansion in den Industrieländern
The global economy has only slightly improved in the first half of this year. Growth has picked up in advanced economies but slowed down in emerging markets. Several emerging economies have lost confidence among investors. Together with signs that the Fed will start scaling back its quantitative easing, this has triggered capital outflows causing substantial currency depreciations in several emerging economies. In the near future, GDP growth rates should remain much higher in emerging economies than in advanced countries but the latter are likely to contribute more to global growth. Fiscal stance in the advanced economies will continue to be tight but should become less restrictive. With confidence improving in the corporate sector and investments having been postponed in recent years fixed capital formation can be expected to contribute to growth. In the emerging countries the slowdown underway will be halted and growth will accelerate. Overall, we expect the global economy to grow 2.8% this year and 3.3% next year. The global economy is changing in many respects. China is pursuing a new growth model. The Euro zone is facing institutional reforms meant to strengthen the currency union and to make it less vulnerable. Finally, central banks will sooner or later have to scale back on their ultra-loose monetary policy. It is not guaranteed that these shifts will go smoothly without causing major disruptions.
Döhrn, R., P. An de Meulen, D. Grozea-Helmenstein, T. Kitlinski, T. Schmidt, S. Vosen and L. Zwick (2013), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Wieder stärkere Expansion in den Industrieländern. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 64, 3, 5-40