Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Stärkere Belebung der Weltkonjunktur
Activity of the world economy has accelerated at the end of the previous year. Particularly, production has grown rapidly in advanced economies. The upswing of the US economy has further improved since last summer. Similarly, the recovery of the Euro area that had been expected in summer has materialized. In contrast, the Japanese economy has not fully overcome the recent downturn. Though benefiting from growing exports to advanced economies, the dynamics of emerging markets' economies have not reached pre-crisis levels yet. Economic policy is expected to facilitate the current upswing. While monetary policy is likely to remain expansionary, fiscal policy in advanced economics is expected to become less restrictive. However, current disparities in economic dynamics in emerging and advanced economies will persist. In particular, advanced economies that have finalized their adjustment process in the aftermath of the financial crisis will benefit from improved conditions. In these economies, however, monetary policy will become more restrictive, which will start to dampen aggregate demand in the next year. The Euro area is expected to further recover from the sovereign debt crisis. However, economic activity in European countries that have been hit by the crisis is likely to remain inhibited because structural adjustment has not been completed yet. Economic dynamics in emerging markets are expected to increase only slightly. Whereas these countries further benefit from an enhanced demand from advanced economies, factors which weaken economic conditions will persist. Finally, production of the world economy (weighted by countries' GDP share in terms of purchasing power parity) will rise by 3.4% this year and by 3.7% in the next year. This leads to an increase of international trade in goods by 4.0% (2014) and 5.3% (2015).
Döhrn, R., P. An de Meulen, D. Grozea-Helmenstein, S. Rujin, T. Schmidt and L. Zwick (2014), Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Stärkere Belebung der Weltkonjunktur. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 65, 1, 5-36