Außenwirtschaftliche Unsicherheit bremst deutsche Konjunktur
The upswing in the German economy lost momentum in the first half of this year. External factors have been a matter of concern, which had a dampening impact on economic activity in the first six months of 2018. Thus, exports declined in the first quarter and available indicators do not suggest a quick recovery. Moreover, export expectations of the private sector have deteriorated, partly reflecting uncertainty about future trade policy. Domestic demand, on the other hand, is expected to remain strong. Hence, investment in construction continues to grow strongly and private consumption benefits from both increasing employment and wages. Furthermore, tax cuts and transfer payments are expected to give a further boost to private consumption in 2019. Against this background, GDP is expected to grow by 1.8 percent this year and by 1.5 percent in 2019. Thus, RWI revises its economic growth forecast down by 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, compared to its March forecast. Employment growth is expected to lose momentum. Due to cyclical factors and a more expansionary fiscal stance, the fiscal surplus is projected to fall from € 41 bn this year to € 27 bn in 2019.
Döhrn, R., G. Barabas, B. Blagov, P. Jäger, R. Jessen, M. Micheli, S. Rujin and T. Schmidt (2018), Außenwirtschaftliche Unsicherheit bremst deutsche Konjunktur. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 69, 2, 5-19