Rohstoffnachfrage 2045: Ressourcen sichern, Zukunft bauen - Perspektiven für mineralische Primär- und Sekundärrohstoffe
Studie im Auftrag des Bundesverbands Baustoffe - Steine und Erden e.V. (bbs)
The study analyzes the long-term demand for mineral primary and secondary raw materials in the segment non-metallic minerals based on different scenarios with regard to the macroeconomic development. Based on a projection of GDP, construction volume, the development of economic sectors demanding raw materials, and raw material productivity, the expected demand for the years 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045 is projected with the help of differentiated raw material matrices. Based on this, it is modelled how the coal phase-out and the decarbonization of the steel industry, for example, will affect the volume of secondary raw materials and thus also the extraction of primary raw materials required to cover the total demand for non-metallic minerals. This results in the secondary raw material quota, which shows the extent to which domestically mined primary raw materials can be substituted by secondary raw materials in the future. On the basis of these empirical analyses, an evaluation of existing studies and expert assessments, the study not only projects the overall economic development and future demand for individual raw materials, but also makes various recommendations for action relevant to the future supply of raw materials.