Langfristige Verteilungswirkungen einer CO2-Bepreisung – ein neuartiger modelltechnischer Ansatz
In this paper, we examine for the first time the future direct cost burden that households could incur in Germany up to 2050 as a result of varying increases in the price of CO2 emissions in the heating and transport sectors. We present a methodological approach in which we link an energy system model with household data and take into account possible technology adjustments, such as a change in heating or a switch to an electric car, by households using machine learning methods. In order to be able to predict the spread of different heating energy sources and fuel types for vehicles as well as corresponding technology changes of households for the future, we make some simplifying assumptions, such as unrestricted capital availability and perfect foresight of the CO2 price development of households.
Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne