Verlangsamte Expansion des Welthandels? Empirische Evidenz und mögliche Ursachen
The growth in world trade has slowed down strongly during the last two years. While world trade increased nearly twice as fast as world production before the Great Recession, its growth was even lower in 2012 and 2013. With the global economy, and in particular the Euro area, recovering, world trade can be expected to grow at higher rates again. However, as liberalization effects might have been already almost exploited and GDP growth in emerging markets will probably become more moderate, it is likely that world trade will not increase as fast as before the crisis. Moreover, there might be shifts in demand towards domestic products in emerging markets that might dampen world trade growth in the long term.
Zwick, L. (2013), Verlangsamte Expansion des Welthandels? Empirische Evidenz und mögliche Ursachen. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 64, 4, 23-30