Aufschwung bleibt kräftig – Kapazitäten zunehmend ausgelastet
The German economy kept growing strongly. The expansion is gaining breadth, being also supported by investment in machinery and equipment and foreign trade. However, there are signs of tension, in particular in the construction sector and the labor market. Indicators suggest that the upswing will continue. It continues to be borne by private consumption, which benefits from increasing employment. Real GDP growth will moderate only marginally from 2.3 percent in 2017 to 2.2 percent in 2018 and 1.9 percent in 2019. Thus capacity utilization can be expected to increase. Inflation will accelerate slightly to 1.9 percent in 2018 and 2019. The situation in the labor market is expected to improve further with the unemployment rate coming down from 5.7 percent in 2017 to 5.4 percent and 5.1 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Given the good economic situation, government receipts will grow strongly. Thus, fiscal surplus thus will grow from € 40 bn in 2017 to € 52 bn in 2019. However, this forecast does not take into account potential changes in the fiscal stance after a new government has been formed.
Döhrn, R., G. Barabas, B. Blagov, A. Fuest, H. Gebhardt, M. Micheli, S. Rujin, T. Schmidt and L. Zwick (2017), Aufschwung bleibt kräftig – Kapazitäten zunehmend ausgelastet. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 68, 4, 5-21