Wachstumsbooster Arbeitsmarkt: Welchen Effekt hätte die Aktivierung des ungenutzten Arbeitskräftepotenzials in Deutschland?
Germany faces substantial economic challenges in the years ahead. An increase in labour supply could boost growth and increase government revenues. In this paper, we use survey data from the Socio-Economic panel to quantify the magnitude of the potential workforce and find that the number of employed persons could be increased by up to 4.7 million persons. If additionally, the employment rate of the over-65-year-olds was increased to the level of Sweden, this number increases to 5.5 million. We then use a microsimulation model to calculate the fiscal effects of various scenarios with increased labour supply. In the most optimistic scenario, where additionally to the increase in employment by 5.5 million, employees who would like to work more hours increase their work hours, government revenue would increase by 169 billion Euro per year and GDP would increase by about 15 percent.
Coschignano, E., N. Isaak and R. Jessen (2025), Wachstumsbooster Arbeitsmarkt: Welchen Effekt hätte die Aktivierung des ungenutzten Arbeitskräftepotenzials in Deutschland?. Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, 74, 1, 77-101