Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2030: Migrationseinbruch schadet dem mittelfristigen Wachstum
The medium-term growth outlook is being significantly dampened by demographic change and persistently weak productivity dynamics. In addition, the recent decline in immigration is slowing the development of the labor force potential. Against this backdrop, potential output is likely to stagnate until 2030. The positive output gap emerging over the forecast period is driven essentially by government spending activity. Supported by the cyclical recovery, aggregate output is already expected to enter a phase of overutilization in 2027, while the capital stock increases only modestly over the entire projection period. The key uncertainties surrounding this forecast stem from the pace at which funds are disbursed from the special fund for infrastructure and climate neutrality, as well as developments in the trade policy environment. All in all, historically unusually weak economic momentum is to be expected over the projection period.
Kotz, S., C. Krause and T. Schmidt (2026), Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2030: Migrationseinbruch schadet dem mittelfristigen Wachstum. RWI Konjunkturberichte, 77, A04